Attending the 2021 Annual Russia Seminar organised by the Finland National Defence University 26 January and 2 February. The seminar discusses Russian military policy and the research development in that field.
Niklas Nilsson, Björn Palmertz, Per Thunholm and my forthcoming book on “Hybrid Warfare: Security and Asymmetric Conflict in International Relations” is now available for pre-order for £17.99. Delivery in April. It will also be available free on-line.
Hybrid Warfare refers to a military strategy that blends conventional warfare, so-called ‘irregular warfare’ and cyber-attacks with other influencing methods, such as fake news, diplomacy and foreign political intervention. As Hybrid Warfare becomes increasingly commonplace, there is an imminent need for research bringing attention to how these challenges can be addressed in order to develop a comprehensive approach towards Hybrid Threats and Hybrid Warfare. This volume supports the development of such an approach by bringing together practitioners and scholarly perspectives on the topic and by covering the threats themselves, as well as the tools and means to counter them, together with a number of real-world case studies.
The book covers numerous aspects of current Hybrid Warfare discourses including a discussion of the perspectives of key western actors such as NATO, the US and the EU; an analysis of Russia and China’s Hybrid Warfare capabilities; and the growing threat of cyberwarfare. A range of global case studies – featuring specific examples from the Baltics, Taiwan, Ukraine, Iran and Catalonia – are drawn upon to demonstrate the employment of Hybrid Warfare tactics and how they have been countered in practice. Finally, the editors propose a new method through which to understand the dynamics of Hybrid Threats, Warfare and their countermeasures, termed the ‘Hybridity Blizzard Model’. With a focus on practitioner insight and practicable International Relations theory, this volume is an essential guide to identifying, analysing and countering Hybrid Threats and Warfare.
Table of content
Foreword – Amb. Fredrik Löjdquist, Ambassador and Special Envoy for Countering Hybrid Threats, Sweden
1. Security Challenges in the Grey Zone: Hybrid Threats and Hybrid WarfareDr. Niklas Nilsson, Dr. Mikael Weissmann, Björn Palmertz, Per Thunholm, Henrik Häggström
2. NATO and Hybrid Warfare: Seeking a Concept to Describe the Challenge from Russia
Dr. G. Alexander Crowther, Research Professor, Florida International University, former Special Assistant to the Supreme Allied Commander, Europe and former researcher in the Strategic Studies Institute and the US National Defense University.
3. An American View: Hybrid Threats and Intelligence
Dr. Gregory F. Treverton, University of Southern California, former Chair of the US National Intelligence Council
4. A Perspective on EU Hybrid Threat Early Warning Efforts
Dr. Patrick Cullen, Senior Research Fellow, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) & member of the “Countering Hybrid Warfare” component of the Multinational Capability Development Campaign (MCDC)
5. Conceptualizing and Countering Hybrid Threats and Hybrid Warfare: The Role of the Military in the Grey-zone
Dr. Mikael Weissmann, Associate Professor, Head of Research at the Land Operations Section and Co-Convener of the Hybrid Warfare Research Group, Department of Military Studies, Swedish Defence University.
6. Understanding Russian Thinking on Gibridnaya Voyna
Dr. Markus Göransson, Assistant Professor and project leader of the Russia program, Swedish Defence University
7. China and its Hybrid Warfare Spectrum
Dr. Lora Saalman, Senior Fellow, EastWest Institute; Associate Senior Fellow, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
8. Influence Operations and the Modern Information Environment
Björn Palmertz, Senior Analyst, CATS, Swedish Defence University
9. Hybrid Threats and New Challenges for Multilateral Intelligence Cooperation
Henrik Häggström, Senior Analyst, Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies (CATS), Swedish Defence University
10. Cyberwarfare and the Internet: the Implications of a More Digitalized World
Anne-Marie Eklund-Löwinder, Head of Security, The Swedish Internet Foundation and Cryptographic Officer at the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) Anna Djup, Analyst, Information Assurance, Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies (CATS), Swedish Defence University
11. The US and Hybrid Challenges: Past, Present and Future
Jed Willard, Director of the Franklin Delano Roosevelt Center for Global Engagement, Harvard University
12. China’s Political Warfare in Taiwan: Strategies, Methods, and Global Implication
Dr Gulizar Haciyakupoglu, Research Fellow, the Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.
Dr Michael Raska, Assistant Professor, Coordinator of Military Transformations Programme, IDSS, RSIS, Singapore
13. Hybrid Warfare in the Baltics
Dr Dorthe Bach Nyemann, Associate Professor in International Relations, Institute for Strategy, Royal Danish Defence College
14. De-Hybridization and Conflict Narration: Ukraine’s Defence against Russian Hybrid Warfare
Dr. Niklas Nilsson, Assistant Professor, Co-Convener of the Hybrid Warfare Research Group, Department of Military Studies, Swedish Defence University
15. Iran’s Hybrid Warfare Capabilities
Dr. Rouzbeh Parsi, Head of the Middle East and North Africa Programme, Swedish Institute of International Affairs
16. Information Influencing in the Catalan Illegal Referendum and Beyond
Dr. Ruben Arcos, Rey Juan Carlos University
17. Moving out of the Blizzard: Towards a Comprehensive Approach to Hybrid Threats and Hybrid Warfare
Dr. Mikael Weissmann, Dr. Niklas Nilsson, Björn Palmertz
I just published a new article in Baltic Defence College’s Journal on Baltic Security – HYBRID WARFARE AND HYBRID THREATS TODAY AND TOMORROW: TOWARDS AN ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK.
This article first traces the origin of hybrid warfare and the label game surrounding the concept, asking whether it is merely old wine in a new bottle, and if so, whether it is still a useful concept. It is found that while being old wine in new bottles, it is still a good wine well worth drinking. While there is not much new in the concept itself, it is a useful tool to think about past wars, today’s wars and the wars of the future. Thereafter, this paper analyses how hybrid warfare and hybrid threats are to be understood in the context of peace, conflict and war. It is shown how hybrid warfare and threats fit into our traditional understanding of conflict dynamics.
Full text (OPEN ACCESS): https://doi.org/10.2478/jobs-2019-0002
On April 4th Dr Johan Engvall ot the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) will visit the Swedish Defence University’s Hybrid Warfare Research Group. He will speak on his recent report “OSCE and Military Confidence Building: Lessons from Georgia and Ukraine” .
“Will Trump make China great again? The belt and road initiative and international order” – new article in Chatham House’s International Affairs with Astrid H. M. Nordin) – full text on https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iix242
New paper on Sweden and the Belt and Road Initiative just out: Sweden’s approach to China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Still a glass half-empty (UI Paper, No.1 2017 with Elin Rappe).
In 2013 China’s President Xi Jinping launched the “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative, later renamed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which involves China undertaking to make infrastructure investments worth billions of US dollars in the countries along the old Silk Road connecting China with Europe. While commonly seen as an infrastructure initiative aimed at strengthening the Chinese economy, it is also a political project with far-reaching strategic aims.
This UI Brief outlines how China has approached the BRI with Sweden, how Sweden has responded and the perceptions of major Swedish stakeholders. It finds that Swedish officials are often highly cautious, maintaining a wait-and see policy. While also cautious, members of the business community are cautiously optimistic and have been more actively following BRIrelated developments, seeking out avenues for potential business. The actual impact of BRI in Sweden, however, is so far very limited.
The Brief concludes that Sweden’s approach to BRI has been too reactive and too passive. It argues that both the government and the business community need to engage more actively with the BRI in order to maximize its possible benefits. To this end, a national strategy is needed that includes the government and the business sector. Better coordination is also needed between government agencies and to link existing intra-governmental cooperation with the business community. Their importance cannot be overemphasized as the BRI is a political project, not an idealistic free-market endeavour.
China and Russia – A Study on Cooperation, Competition and Distrust (with Märta Carlsson & Susanne Oxenstierna), Report no FOI-R- -4087-SE, Stockholm: Swedish Defence Research Agency, 2015, pp.100.