Today I held a guest lecture at the Akademia Sztuki Wojennej in Warszawa, Poland for one of their master programs. Today’s topic was “The Grey Zone, Hybrid Threats and Hybrid Warfare: Concepts & Cases.” As always excellently chaired by the Director of Global Affairs and Diplomacy Studies National Security Dr Marzena Żakowska.
Today I participated in a panel on Gray zone conflicts and the absence of institutional mechanisms at the 2021 Stockholm Security Conference: Battlefields of the future organized by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
It was great to be back IRL on Campus and discuss the Grey Zone and problems related to hybrid threats and warfare with our very skilled students.
On 5-6 November I am participating in the Warsaw Security Forum (WSF) 2021. WSF is a leading European platform devoted to transatlantic cooperation and focused on elaborating shared responses to common security challenges.
Hybrid warfare strategies blend conventional warfare, irregular warfare and cyber-attacks with other influencing methods, such as disinformation, diplomacy and foreign political interference. There is a need for novel comprehensive approaches to counter them.
Today Dr Niklas Nilsson and I presented the findings of our edited volume on Hybrid Warfare at the Department of Military Studies of the Swedish Defence University’s annual staff day. We also received the Head of Department’s coin of recognition for the book.
The full book can be accessed for free here: https://www.bloomsburycollections.com/book/hybrid-warfare-security-and-asymmetric-conflict-in-international-relations/
Today I gave a lecture on Hybrid Threats and Hybrid Warfare at the War Studies University, Poland. A lot of interesting discussions on Hybrid Threats and Warfare, what to about them as well as the role of Ukraine for European Security and the role of NATO in the grey zone.
Interview about our new anthology on hybrid threats and hybrid warfare. Learn how to understand and deal with security issues in the grey zone. Link: https://www.fhs.se/en/swedish-defence-university/news/2021-04-27-new-book-on-hybrid-warfare.html
IB Tauris anthology “Hybrid Warfare: Security and Asymmetric Conflict in International Relations” is now published.
What people say:
“This collection of essays on international hybrid threats and proper responses is a veritable cornucopia of empirical research findings and analytic insights, in the manner of so much good research and writing coming out of Sweden on matters of war and peace. With a wide array of authors from the world’s democracies, the contributions in this volume will be attractive to professionals and the public alike who are interested in the gray zone falling between outright war and peace in this trouble world—the space that Russia likes to operate within, for example, as Moscow attempts to manipulate Western opinion and undermine the open societies. One of the volume’s great strengths is its melding of thinking on this subject by both scholars and practitioners. Fascinating, too, are a series of case studies included among the chapters, with probes into hybrid threats and warfare as seen from the perspectives of China, Iran, Russia, the United States, and several other illustrations. The relevance, thoughtfulness, and practicality of this book cannot be overstated.” – Loch K. Johnson, Regents Professor Emeritus, University of Georgia, USA
“The new form of global competition being waged in the Grey Zone between peace and war is a struggle for our minds. This curated collection of articles by international experts in hybrid warfare is a timely warning of what is at stake for us in the digital age. Read it to find out what we must do to defend ourselves and our democracy.” – Professor Sir David Omand, former UK Security and Intelligence Coordinator and Director of GCHQ
“War is not what it used to be in the industrial age. As we are entering the digital age, we often find ourselves in a grey zone of contest, conflict and confrontation where a wide array of means are used to influence, disrupt and sometimes – although more seldom – also to destruct. This collection helps us to understand and to navigate in today’s far more complex reality with an ongoing contest between the different rising and declining powers of our time” – Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister (1991-1994) and Foreign Minister (2006-2014) of Sweden. Currently Co-Chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“The edited volume Hybrid warfare: Security and Asymmetric Conflict in International Relations provides timely summary of conceptual origins of the hybrid war within the western research community, accompanied with insightful analysis of how this concept has been interpreted in Russia, Iran and China. The key contribution of the volume for further expert and policy debate is however combination of conceptually oriented research with the high-quality empirical analyses. The latter highlight concrete cases of hybrid war, focusing on the methods used (from informational, cyber to military) as well as on the efforts to counter hybrid war in different political contexts. The Hybridity Blizzard Model developed by the authors provides a good overview of the complexity of the problem.” – Katri Pynnöniemi, Assistant Professor and holder of the Mannerheim Chair of Russian Security Studies at the University of Helsinki and National Defence University, Finland.
“Hybrid Warfare is one of the most misunderstood concepts in modern security studies, this volume goes a long way towards clearing up the confusion by providing a viable path towards understanding the evolution of warfare. Western nations will face the challenge of hybrid threats well into the future because of the opportunity new methods of political warfare offer, the “blizzard” is coming for us all.” – Brandon Valeriano, Bren Chair of Military Innovation at the Marine Corps University
Table of content
Foreword – Amb. Fredrik Löjdquist, Ambassador and Special Envoy for Countering Hybrid Threats, Sweden
1. Security Challenges in the Grey Zone: Hybrid Threats and Hybrid WarfareDr. Niklas Nilsson, Dr. Mikael Weissmann, Björn Palmertz, Per Thunholm, Henrik Häggström
2. NATO and Hybrid Warfare: Seeking a Concept to Describe the Challenge from Russia
Dr. G. Alexander Crowther, Research Professor, Florida International University, former Special Assistant to the Supreme Allied Commander, Europe and former researcher in the Strategic Studies Institute and the US National Defense University.
3. An American View: Hybrid Threats and Intelligence
Dr. Gregory F. Treverton, University of Southern California, former Chair of the US National Intelligence Council
4. A Perspective on EU Hybrid Threat Early Warning Efforts
Dr. Patrick Cullen, Senior Research Fellow, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) & member of the “Countering Hybrid Warfare” component of the Multinational Capability Development Campaign (MCDC)
5. Conceptualizing and Countering Hybrid Threats and Hybrid Warfare: The Role of the Military in the Grey-zone
Dr. Mikael Weissmann, Associate Professor, Head of Research at the Land Operations Section and Co-Convener of the Hybrid Warfare Research Group, Department of Military Studies, Swedish Defence University.
6. Understanding Russian Thinking on Gibridnaya Voyna
Dr. Markus Göransson, Assistant Professor and project leader of the Russia program, Swedish Defence University
7. China and its Hybrid Warfare Spectrum
Dr. Lora Saalman, Senior Fellow, EastWest Institute; Associate Senior Fellow, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
8. Influence Operations and the Modern Information Environment
Björn Palmertz, Senior Analyst, CATS, Swedish Defence University
9. Hybrid Threats and New Challenges for Multilateral Intelligence Cooperation
Henrik Häggström, Senior Analyst, Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies (CATS), Swedish Defence University
10. Cyberwarfare and the Internet: the Implications of a More Digitalized World
Anne-Marie Eklund-Löwinder, Head of Security, The Swedish Internet Foundation and Cryptographic Officer at the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) Anna Djup, Analyst, Information Assurance, Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies (CATS), Swedish Defence University
11. The US and Hybrid Challenges: Past, Present and Future
Jed Willard, Director of the Franklin Delano Roosevelt Center for Global Engagement, Harvard University
12. China’s Political Warfare in Taiwan: Strategies, Methods, and Global Implication
Dr Gulizar Haciyakupoglu, Research Fellow, the Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.
Dr Michael Raska, Assistant Professor, Coordinator of Military Transformations Programme, IDSS, RSIS, Singapore
13. Hybrid Warfare in the Baltics
Dr Dorthe Bach Nyemann, Associate Professor in International Relations, Institute for Strategy, Royal Danish Defence College
14. De-Hybridization and Conflict Narration: Ukraine’s Defence against Russian Hybrid Warfare
Dr. Niklas Nilsson, Assistant Professor, Co-Convener of the Hybrid Warfare Research Group, Department of Military Studies, Swedish Defence University
15. Iran’s Hybrid Warfare Capabilities
Dr. Rouzbeh Parsi, Head of the Middle East and North Africa Programme, Swedish Institute of International Affairs
16. Information Influencing in the Catalan Illegal Referendum and Beyond
Dr. Ruben Arcos, Rey Juan Carlos University
17. Moving out of the Blizzard: Towards a Comprehensive Approach to Hybrid Threats and Hybrid Warfare
Dr. Mikael Weissmann, Dr. Niklas Nilsson, Björn Palmertz
Today I am attending the 1st International Scientific Conference “MILITARY CONFLICTS AND TECHNOGENIC DISASTERS: historical and psychological consequences” (to the 35th Anniversary of the Chernobyl Disaster) organised by Ternopil Ivan Puluj National Technical University April 22 – 23, 2021 in Ternopil, Ukraine.
I am presenting a paper titled “Comprehending hybrid threats and hybrid warfare: The Hybridity Blizzard Model” together with Dr Niklas Nilsson (Swedish Defence University) and Björn Palmertz (Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies (CATS)). The paper outlines our “Hybridity Blizzard Model” for how to comprehend hybrid threats and hybrid warfare.